Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the midweek card of Premier League fixtures.
Brighton's wobbles are a great betting edge to exploit. Just one win in 12 games isn't a blip, that's a crisis - yet the markets still have them priced as a dangerous outfit. Villa, notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, are on offer at 10/11 with Sky Bet for maximum points. That looks generous based on what Brighton are serving up.
Fabian Hurzeler's side are struggling for creativity and confidence. The end could be near for him as Brighton boss.
Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove on his debut. It wasn't always pretty or easy on the eye but he made his presence felt in that 1-0 win Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance shows a striker visibly eager to impose himself and to make a statement.
Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That's potentially almost two yellow-card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the aura of a striker playing like it's only a matter of time before he oversteps, mistimes a challenge or lashes out in frustration. Like he did at Brighton when stopping an attack with a cynical pull of the shirt.
Strand Larsen is a striker - sure - but a striker who's touchy, combative and clearly wants to make a mark. The odds are gigantic at 19/2 with Sky Bet for a card.
This version of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City always gives you a chance. It's a far cry from their controlled and possession-obsessed style.
Fulham, meanwhile, aren't here to make up the numbers. Both teams to score have landed in 12 of their last 15 games and they've managed that feat on their last four visits to the Etihad. That's not luck, that's a proven blueprint of being able to hit City on the counter, capitalise on mistakes and play with freedom.
City will score - of course they will - but Fulham are likely to join the party. Both teams to score looks a bet at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Make no mistake, there's bad blood there.
Every touch will be scrutinised, every run will be jeered and if he gets on the scoresheet, the emotions are going to explode.
Gibbs-White isn't shy either. He's combative, fiery and at 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and pick up a card, the value is screaming. Picture the scene: a Gibbs-White goal sparks celebrations in what has become a very big game now for Forest. The shirt may come off which triggers a booking.
Combine the two through the Sky Bet BuildABet function and 10/1 looks like a steal.
If you want a betting market that rewards understanding football match-ups rather than predicting perfection, the "to be fouled" market is as good as it gets.
Bookmakers price fouls largely off averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully account for is role within a specific match-up. Like a foul-heavy centre-forward playing up against a wily centre-back. That's what we have here.
This isn't about Virgil van Dijk losing control or his cool. That rarely happens.
It's about Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific type of duel against his opponent in Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.
Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, which is a huge number for a striker operating in a possession-dominant side. Even more telling is the recent trend of nine fouls across his last six games where he is bullying big-name opponents. Van Dijk is 10/11 with Sky Bet to win +1 fouls.
Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless rate, conceding here and there and making life very, very hard for anyone trying to keep them quiet. That is a perfect cocktail for backing the over 2.5 goals line when the odds flirt around the Even money mark. Their last 13 games are averaging 3.4 goals per 90 minutes and 10 of those matches have gone over 2.5 goals
Even without Brentford contributing, Arsenal alone could easily cover this line. They've hit three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 matches. That's ruthless attacking form from a team who know exactly how to punish mistakes.
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