Our football betting expert Jones Knows tipped four winners from four bets on Tuesday night, what is on his radar in the Premier League on Wednesday?
Aston Villa are a team to oppose right now while their engine room remains out of action. The absence of John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara strips them of control, progression and bite in one of the most important areas of the pitch.
Without that trio, Villa look stale. Possession is slower. The press lacks cohesion. The intent just isn't there.
The results back it up. One win in six, including a defeat to Wolves, reads even worse when you note none of those six opponents sit inside the top six of the Premier League. This wasn't a brutal run of fixtures - it's a downturn in performance levels.
What's interesting, though, is that Villa's defensive process hasn't completely collapsed. Those six matches have averaged just two goals per game. They're not being blown away - they're just lacking spark.
Villa's recent games suggest lower-scoring affairs.
The 5/2 with Sky Bet for Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals neatly dovetails with those recent trends. It allows for a 1-0, 2-0 or even 2-1 away victory - outcomes that feel far more plausible than a goal-fest given Villa's current limitations.
Piero Hincapie has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts at left-back for Arsenal when you include the super-sub concession with Sky Bet. A player ticking along at a 90 per cent strike rate in the role brings about a consistency that offers a great investment opportunity.
He's a great salesman when it comes to fouls. Playing in a position where he is learning on the job means he gets himself into tricky situations when faced with pressure. His answer to them? Hit the deck under contact. It's the modern way.
This ability to win fouls is not new either. During his time at Bayer Leverkusen, he drew 1.4 fouls per 90 last season - a strong number across a big sample size. Brighton rank third for fouls this season in the Premier League (12.6 per game) so Hincape should find many opportunities to showcase his foul-drawing skills. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to win +2 fouls.
If you're hunting for a game that could get loose this midweek, this is your spot.
Fulham matches are becoming a magnet for goals. Ten of their last 11 have rewarded over 2.5 backers. When their games stretch, they really stretch. And when that happens, the totals tend to follow.
That makes the 'over 2.5 goals and both teams to score' angle at Evens with Sky Bet particularly appealing.
West Ham arrive with genuine attacking threat of their own. Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen provide pace and incision from wide and central areas, giving them the ability to hurt teams in transition or sustained pressure.
Across their last nine matches, West Ham are scoring at 1.7 goals per game. The expected goals data is even stronger at 2.05 per match. Those are not numbers you'd associate with a side priced up like relegation fodder, they're creating chances at a top-half rate.
Manchester City have conceded 11 or more shots in each of their last seven Premier League matches, shipping an average of 12.8 efforts per game in that run. That's not vintage Pep Guardiola control. Yet, the markets are sleeping on this trend.
Even Wolves managed to hit the 11-shot mark at a nice price, which tells you this isn't just a one-off blip - it's a pattern. City are giving up territory, and when you give up territory in the Premier League, you give up shots.
Across their last eight matches, Nottingham Forest have averaged a chunky 18.5 shots per game. That's huge volume. They're playing with bravery, committing numbers forward, and crucially for this bet, pulling the trigger often. That's what the pressure of relegation can do to a team.
The odds for Forest to have 11 or more shots at 10/11 with Sky Bet rates as a very tempting wager.
Since returning from injury, Harry Maguire has added a more streetwise side to his game. He's not just hoofing it clear or standing tall - he's anticipating, positioning and inviting contact in ways that are seeing him win more fouls than his long-term averages would suggest. The algorithms and markets are still catching up.
The numbers are compelling. He's been fouled 11 times across his last seven matches - a huge average for a centre-back. Even more impressive, he's hit the 2+ fouls won line in four of those matches, including the last three on the spin. That shows consistency, something which is vital when trusting a line of form in betting.
Against Newcastle, there's every reason to expect similar behaviour. Maguire will be drawn into duels, asked to step into midfield and cover runners in behind. He'll face direct challenges, and with Newcastle's pressing style, fouls are practically baked in.
New Tottenham boss Igor Tudor likes his teams to play aggressively. His stints at Lazio and Juventus saw spikes in fouls per 90, and that approach has started here in north London. Spurs have committed 31 fouls across the two games since Tudor arrived.
Radu Dragusin has picked up the mantle of rashness in the absence of the suspended Cristian Romero. He's made seven fouls in his last three matches. When cool heads are required in the situation Spurs find themselves in, the approach of Dragusin isn't exactly helping calm the nerves.
Dragusin's position, temperament and Tudor's high-intensity defensive setup all point toward him picking up multiple fouls yet again.
At 7/2 with Sky Bet for +2 fouls, the market is not fully reflecting how often Dragusin is being forced into challenges and making them under Tudor's system. Two or more fouls in this clash looks well within range.
